The UAE, OPEC’s third-largest crude producer after Saudi Arabia and Iraq, is expected to gain greater freedom to increase output once it leaves the group, potentially easing oil and gas prices over the long term.

However, analysts caution that any immediate relief in fuel prices is unlikely. Brent crude is currently trading at multi-week highs of around $117 per barrel, while US gasoline prices remain elevated.

A key factor keeping prices high is the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, where an estimated 10–12 million barrels of crude oil per day are being held back from global markets.

Experts note that the UAE has significantly expanded its production capacity in recent years and has been constrained by OPEC quotas, which currently limit its output to about 3.2 million barrels per day despite a capacity closer to 5 million, reports CNN. 

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was founded in 1960 by major producers including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Venezuela and has since played a central role in managing global oil supply.

Its influence, however, has declined over time due to structural changes in the global energy market, including the rise of the United States as a net oil exporter and increasing reliance on alternative energy sources.

To maintain its relevance, OPEC formed the broader OPEC+ alliance in 2016, incorporating additional producers such as Russia. Together, OPEC+ still accounts for about 42% of global oil production, meaning its decisions continue to affect prices.

Analysts say the UAE’s departure could further weaken the group, especially if it encourages other members to follow or triggers a price war among Gulf producers competing for market share.

Once disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz ease, increased supply—particularly from the UAE—could put downward pressure on oil prices.

Economists suggest that a more fragmented and less coordinated OPEC may gradually lose its ability to control supply, potentially leading to lower oil prices over time.